Transforming Global LNG Surplus into African Opportunity: Prioritizing Domestic Gas Infrastructure for Sustainable Growth
According to Bloomberg’s Global LNG Market Outlook 2030, global LNG supply is projected to surge from 2027 onward, driven by expansions in the U.S., Qatar, and North African producers such as Algeria. The report anticipates supply reaching approximately 594 million tons per annum by 2030—a 42% rise from 2024 levels—with a potential 15-million-ton oversupply in global markets. While geopolitical uncertainties and project delays pose risks, this surplus underscores the need for Africa to bolster internal gas value chains to mitigate exposure to international price volatility.
Africa’s gas production is expanding rapidly, with emerging LNG projects across the continent. North Africa currently dominates two-thirds of output, but the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) State of African Energy 2026 Outlook forecasts this declining to 40% by 2035 as sub-Saharan regions ramp up. Sub-Saharan LNG supply could quadruple by 2050, while continental gas demand is expected to increase 60%, rising from 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2020 to 90 bcm.
However, much of Africa’s gas remains export-oriented due to constraints in pipeline networks, transmission systems, processing, and storage facilities. Export-focused LNG projects benefit from established offtake agreements and financing, whereas domestic initiatives often struggle to secure patient capital and government support. Bridging this divide requires targeted infrastructure development to connect production to local pipelines, power plants, and regional grids.
Positive momentum is evident in ongoing projects fostering an integrated African gas market. These include LNG import terminals at South Africa’s Richards Bay and Morocco’s Port of Nador, designed for domestic and regional distribution. Ethiopia has advanced the Gas-by-Rail Economic Corridor Initiative, envisioning a vast freight railway network to deliver LNG across more than 40 sub-Saharan countries.
Key cross-border pipelines are progressing, such as the $25 billion Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline linking 13 West African nations, the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline from Nigeria to Algeria, and the $1.5 billion petroleum products pipeline connecting Mozambique to Zambia, announced in 2025. Nationally, Senegal is building phased gas networks tied to offshore fields, power generation, and industry, while Ghana advances multi-purpose petrochemical facilities.
A strong continental shift toward gas-to-power is underway, supported by policy reforms to enhance electricity access. The AEC projects natural gas contributing 45% of Africa’s power mix by 2050. Leading producers including Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Senegal, Ghana, and Mozambique have embedded gas-to-power targets in national plans to drive reliable energy, cleaner cooking, industrialization, and economic diversification.
As NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC, emphasizes: “Export projects alone will not secure Africa’s energy future. Strategic investment in gas infrastructure is what will determine whether rising production translates into electricity access, industrial capacity, and economic resilience.”
Amid rising domestic demand, advancing infrastructure, and intensifying global competition, African Energy Week 2026 in Cape Town will serve as a pivotal forum to elevate gas as a cornerstone of energy security, industrial advancement, and inclusive development across Africa.
